Leakage detection in water pipe networks using a Bayesian probabilistic framework

A Bayesian system identification methodology is proposed for leakage detection in water pipe networks. The methodology properly handles the unavoidable uncertainties in measurement and modeling errors. Based on information from flow test data, it provides estimates of the most probable leakage events (magnitude and location of leakage) and the uncertainties in such estimates. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is illustrated by applying the leakage detection approach to a specific water pipe network. Several important issues are addressed, including the role of modeling error, measurement noise, leakage severity and sensor configuration (location and type of sensors) on the reliability of the leakage detection methodology. The present algorithm may be incorporated into an integrated maintenance network strategy plan based on computer-aided decision-making tools. q 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.